I have always thought that one of the drawback of Armenians is having exaggerated expectations of something. Among them, of course, are “fiery falls” and “fiery springs” expectations, which are promised by our opponents over 20 years. The intelligence suggests that even if mass demonstrations are organized, they would hardly lead to some substitutions in the “top”, but even if these substitutions occur, they would no way mean “collapse of the regime”.
The same for the exaggerated expectations of Sochi meeting. For no reason, some people in Armenia feel that the issue of peace or war would be resolved in today’s meeting. In fact, Azerbaijan will continue its attempts to aggravate the situation. And it will happen because no international player is interested in defusing the situation (true, it is not also interested in a full-scale war). Russia has been repeatedly spoken of. This country has a lot of leverage of pressure, including Karabakh, and the lever of pressure on Azerbaijan is Karabakh. If the problem were resolved peacefully or by military force, then Russia would lose its leverages.
Are the European Union, the OSCE, the UN, and the United States interested in having no firings on the border? I think, not. Let’s not go further into the reasons as they are different. But the indicator “for not being interested” by the listed countries and organizations is simple. None of these instances wants to record that the ceasefire violator and instigator of border incidents is Azerbaijan. The following simple logic speaks in favor of it. We want to freeze the current situation, because it is beneficial to us, whereas Azerbaijan wants to “warm it up” because the “status quo” is not beneficial to them. Why do we need this tension?
In addition, modern technologies enable us to accurately determine who is attacking and who is defending. There is no dark spot here. If knowing all that, the above-mentioned countries and organizations continue calling on “all parties” to exercise restraint, then it means that they are giving a “carte blanche” to the side, which is truly “unrestraint” in continuing its assaults. And Azerbaijan takes advantage of the opportunity.
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After all, having exaggerated expectations of Putin-Sargsyan and Putin-Aliyev meeting in Sochi is not reasonable. Putin would say after the meeting that he had called on the two leaders to take urgent measures to respect the ceasefire and to defuse the situation. Serzh Sargsyan would say that he had introduced the state of affairs after Azerbaijani provocations to Putin and had called on Russia to use its influence to return Azerbaijan to the negotiating table. And Ilham Aliyev would say that he had called on to pull up the Armenian aggression, otherwise, Azerbaijan will have to use force to restore its territorial integrity.
Let them try. But, later, let them not complain of, let’s say, “30 percent of occupied territories” and “1.5 million refugees”.
ARAM ABRAHAMYAN
