Moscow needs the “corridor” as much as the Ankara-Baku tandem
The other day, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced it is impossible to defeat the Russians. “It seems to me that this attitude towards each other and the motherland is in the blood of our people; it is impossible to defeat such a people, and those who try to switch to foreign traditions, some foreigner’s internal signals, they turn to NATO, etc. these are people who, without starting anything, have already lost everything. They betrayed their ancestors; they betrayed their people and their interests.
Putin considers that the counter-offensive of Ukraine has wholly failed; he has already spoken about the loss of that country’s statehood, noting that it is impossible to force Russia to give up the achievements that were made in the last 1.5 years. “If what is going on now continues, what is happening now, and now it is quite obvious that not only their counterattack has failed, but the initiative is in the hands of the Russian armed forces, if this continues, then the Ukrainian statehood an irreversible, severe blow can be inflicted.”
In the West, at the same time, they have an opposite position regarding Putin’s “optimistic” assessments. Russia and the Russians are in even more significant political isolation, including in the Caucasus, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg noted within the framework of the World Economic Forum in Davos. According to the NATO Secretary General, he is cautious in his predictions about the development of the war in Ukraine and even more careful in his predictions about “what will happen inside Russia.” “We saw Prigozhin last year; there may be surprises. But we don’t have any indication that there will be big changes inside Russia, but, of course, they can be unexpected,” he said.
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According to Stoltenberg, everything possible should be done “to increase the price for Russia.” “They lost 300,000 soldiers, casualties, thousands of equipment, hundreds of aircraft. That is what is important for Russia and ordinary Russians. Their economy is in trouble. They pay a high economic price. They are paying a high political price. They are in greater political isolation, including in the near abroad, in the Caucasus and Central Asia. Therefore, we cannot confidently predict what will happen. But what we can do is to maximize the probability that at some stage President Putin will realize that the continuation of this war will cost him too much,” said the NATO Secretary General. According to Stoltenberg, “at some stage” the Russian president “must sit down and agree on some kind of just, lasting peace in which Ukraine will exist as a sovereign independent state.”
In turn, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, noted at the same conference. “I will tell you real information: Russia will not achieve its strategic goals…”
There is an irreconcilable struggle between Russia and the West. Not only has Moscow declared war on Ukraine, but Putin’s reaction against those deepening relations with the West is natural. However, the reason for the Russian state propaganda campaign against Armenia after the 44-day war in 2020 is not only the deepening relations between Armenia and the West. From Russia’s point of view, no significant deviations have occurred there. After the 44-day war, the current government of Armenia signed several documents developed by Moscow. The negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan at the level of deputy prime ministers have continued.
Moscow’s displeasure lies in its expectations from Yerevan to fulfill the requirements stipulated in the tripartite document. Russia is as demanding as Ankara and Baku regarding implementing the trilateral document, and that is where Russian economic interest lies. Moscow needs the “corridor” as much as the Ankara-Baku tandem. Putin does not admit that what the West describes regarding Russia’s financial situation is a reality, but he expects Armenia to save Russia.
Together with politics, the ring of economic isolation around Russia is getting tighter. Recently, a remarkable article was published in the Turkish “Economim” periodical, which describes what “surprises” Turkey has presented to Russian companies.
At the end of the year, Brian Nelson, Under Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence of the United U.S. Department of the Treasury, visited Turkey and presented the demands of the U.S. Secretary of State Blinken to the Turkish authorities regarding Turkey’s responsibility for anti-Russian sanctions. We are talking about attempts to bypass export restrictions.
As a result, starting January 1, 2024, Turkish banks directly blocked Russian payments, and money transfers from Russia were stopped. Payment flows of trade transactions for the supply of electronics, clothing, automobiles, chemicals, and other types of products have practically ceased, and companies are waiting in panic. The newspaper notes that the problems related to money transfers from Russia began to appear in December and gained momentum in January. The payments of many companies are either returned or rejected by Turkish banks, a severe obstacle to Russian companies.
According to the information received by the periodical, after the visit of U.S. Secretary of State Blinken, transfers and transactions with Turkish lira and ruble payments from Russia were immediately rejected by some banks, as a result of which the Russian-Turkish trade transactions were disrupted.
The newspaper reminds us that in 2022, After the Russo-Ukrainian war, trade between Turkey and Russia continued to grow amid U.S. and E.U. sanctions against Russia. Turkey’s exports to Russia increased by 23.2 percent last year, from 7 billion 647 million dollars in 2020 to 9 billion 423 million. Although there was concern in the West about the impressive level of growing trade relations between the two countries, the issue was not so firmly placed before the Turkish government. Meanwhile, after the last visit of the U.S. Secretary of State to Ankara, making money transfers from Russia has become significantly more complicated.
In addition, an unfavorable situation has been created for Russian companies operating in Turkey. As it is known, in the developing relations with Russia, not only did foreign trade improve, but also the number of Russian companies based in Turkey increased significantly. However, according to the Turkish periodical, this trend has stopped since 2023. The number of companies with Russian capital founded in January-November of last year decreased by 42.8 percent compared to the same period in 2022, decreasing to 690. It is noted that Russian businessmen have already started to face certain complications. The Russian “Kommersant” also addressed this topic, according to which Turkey, where it was relatively more straightforward to establish a business in 2022, has turned into a more challenging market due to the tightening of the sanctions regime.
The situation has changed after applying the 11th E.U. sanctions package for companies whose owners or CEOs are Russian citizens. For the latter, in some cases, it is even impossible to open a bank account and transfer money from Turkey to other countries. The Turkish banks do not even provide clear information about the created situation and the reasons for the refusal.
Thus, the grounds for reducing or blocking Russia-Turkey trade indicators have been created; Turkish economists find it difficult to predict unequivocally whether the Turkish authorities will manage to get out of the “blacklist” of the West.
Under these conditions, the “corridor” is vital for Moscow. The Russian attitude towards the Armenian government is due to the desire to establish control over that “corridor” through its state propaganda manifestations.
Emma GABRIELYAN
“Aravot” daily newspaper, 18.01.2024
The publication was produced within the project “Competing Narratives” implemented by Media Initiatives Center and n-ost.
