Today, during the Media Forum held in occupied Shushi, Ilham Aliyev praised Donald Trump and criticized Joe Biden. He claimed that previous U.S. administrations had generally followed a policy aimed at freezing the conflict, whereas Trump came along and established peace.
In reality, Aliyev is, of course, flattering Trump and distorting the facts, fully aware that this is something Trump appreciates. After all, wasn’t it Pashinyan himself who declared that he was dissatisfied with the Biden administration?
The reality is that it was precisely the Biden administration that paved the way for what Trump has, so to speak, capitalized on. Since 2023, the Biden administration has been actively working on the very issues that were later incorporated into Trump’s “pathway” initiative. In essence, the plan bears Trump’s name, but its substance was shaped by the Biden administration.
The question is that for Trump, this plan is a bargaining tool in dealings with Moscow and Beijing, whereas Biden viewed it as a zone of counteraction against Moscow and Tehran—a foothold, a barrier.
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From this perspective, of course, both Pashinyan and Aliyev will be satisfied, because Biden’s logic was far more explosive than Trump’s. Trump’s approach does not guarantee peace; it has increased uncertainty. But in Biden’s case, a regional conflict was effectively being set in motion.
And that was something neither Pashinyan nor Aliyev needed. The two of them are more comfortable operating within a framework that allows each to secure what they need: Pashinyan—power, and Aliyev—dominance over Armenia through that power.
Hakob BADALYAN
