It is often said—primarily by Armenia’s authorities or pro-government propaganda circles—that by paying close attention to the rhetoric and statements of Ilham Aliyev and other senior Azerbaijani officials, as well as to those of various non-governmental initiatives operating under the state’s conspicuous patronage, these narratives are brought into Armenia and end up setting the agenda here.
It is at least strange to hear this “counterargument” at a time when Armenia’s authorities themselves have officially put various Azerbaijani demands on the agenda and are even threatening the public with war if it voices opposition to them. And changing the Constitution at Azerbaijan’s insistence and abandoning the reference to the Declaration of Independence is the “crowning achievement” of all this. Under such circumstances, trying to shut down public attention to Azerbaijan’s ambitious statements by arguing that Azerbaijani narratives are being imported into the Armenian agenda is either political and informational incompetence or a deliberate distortion calculated to serve that purpose.
Against this backdrop, the public has been paying particular attention to the apparent hardening of Baku’s conduct in recent times. This raises questions because Azerbaijan is, in effect, creating an awkward situation for Armenia’s authorities by casting doubt on the validity of the “peace” narrative. The close attention is warranted because beneath conduct that ostensibly creates such an impression, there may be another approach at work: preparing the ground necessary to blackmail the Armenian public in the event of a constitutional referendum—preparing the “practical groundwork” for it.
The authorities in Yerevan have virtually no realistic chance of securing the passage of the constitutional referendum. Perhaps the hope is that blackmail will do the job: if you do not vote in favor of a new Constitution without a reference to the Declaration of Independence, there will be war. And for that blackmail to be convincing, and therefore effective, Baku may be considering a policy of “manageable tension” in the situation.
Read also
Hakob BADALYAN
The illustration was created using AI technology
