The “Civil Contract” has great public support, of course, due to Nikol Pashinyan, but it is enough to win the election in Yerevan, especially that only 40 percent of votes is needed for the absolute victory in the election. Practically there is no rival. The Prosperous Armenia Party, which has not been particularly competitive in Yerevan even in its best times, will perhaps collect 7 percent without any problem. For the rest of the parties, that will take part, regardless of their names, 7 percent may be the maximum result.
In such conditions, the “Civil Contract” will not need its “Yelq” partners’ support, and it will turn out that the bloc is a one-sided concession of the “Civil Contract”, and it is unclear why. Moreover, such political blocs essentially devalue the phenomenon of politics, which is sound when it is based on political, mutual, natural tactical or strategic interests, not on interpersonal, friendly, so-called humanistic relations. Another factor that will make “Civil Contract” take part alone is that the fate of the “Yelq” in the parliamentary election is unclear. In this case, a situation can occur when the bloc will constitute the majority in the Yerevan City Council, but the “Yelq” bloc may not be there in the parliamentary elections and it will turn out that after the extraordinary elections, there will be an issue of the majority of the Yerevan City Council.
It is difficult to imagine that “Yelq” will keep the unity in the Council when there are already different parties at the national level. Moreover, the differences will refer not only to the formats or titles but also the approaches, since the “Civil Contract” is obviously different from the other two partners in this sense who have a more pro-Western position. Thus, it is most likely that the extraordinary election of the Yerevan City Council will put an end to the “Yelq” bloc.
Aram AMATUNI