2000 year. “Putin is a powerful leader. We have lived our whole lives under the auspices of the Russians, and it will continue like this. If Putin gets very angry, he will return Masis Mountain to us. Putin gives Armenians a chance.”
The year 2024. “Russia has always been our enemy. For 300 years, because of the Russians, we have been genocided and losing territories.”
That is the case when two absurdities, two senseless extremes condition each other. If you have exaggerated expectations from someone, it is logical that after a profound disappointment, you will start to see the cause of all your troubles in that one.
I wrote a lot about the first (2000) nonsense when it was dominant in our society. Now, it’s time to address the second. This one is entirely beneficial to the current government because it frees Pashinyan from any responsibility for the tragedy that happened (and continues).
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Accordingly, Putin’s strategic goal from the beginning was to depopulate Artsakh. I don’t think so. The state persons (unless they are not impulsive and changeable like Pashinyan) are governed primarily by calculations. They balance which goal is the priority and which can be sacrificed for something more substantial. Moral judgments are unnecessary here.
It is clear that since at least 2014, Putin has been planning to start a full-scale war against Ukraine. A simple calculation showed that as a result of an attack on a neighboring country, Russia would be isolated and under sanctions. Turkey’s political and economic support was more critical in those conditions than Artsakh.
Of course, Russia should have had both. However, it became impossible after Armenia rejected Lavrov’s last plan in 2019 (not to be called “Nikol-traitor”).
The second component of today’s nonsense is that if the “peace treaty” is signed under the auspices of the EU and the USA, those two power centers will guarantee peace. This is a fallacy, just as it is, of course, a fallacy to rely on Russia in this regard. Nobody can guarantee anything today. The reason is not that Russia, the EU, and the USA are “good” or “bad” but that these countries are guided by their interests.
In 1915, everyone gave guarantees. We saw how that ended.
ARAM ABRAHAMYAN
