“The Armenian side has not been opposed to Azerbaijan having a route to Nakhichevan via Armenia from the beginning. The entire issue is that the route must not have the status of a corridor,” political scientist Armen Vardanyan told Aravot Daily in response to a question about how acting Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan announced during the session of government that communication must be unblocked, and Azerbaijan must have a route to Nakhichevan via Armenia, so does this mean that Azerbaijan got what it wanted by causing provocations at the border.
According to Vardanyan, a corridor settlement, in turn, implies extraterritorial status with its consequences. The political scientist noted that the Armenian side has never been against giving way to Azerbaijan, but it should not have such a settlement as Azerbaijan claims and mentions- the Zangezur corridor. He clarified, “It should not have the status of a corridor. It should just be a road, and this is nothing new. Since November 9, the Armenian side has expressed willingness to give a route, as well as to get a route to Russia through Azerbaijan.”
In response to a question about whether it would be possible for the situation at the border to stabilize after Nikol Pashinyan’s statement on opening communication, Armen Vardanyan said, “I do not believe that is Azerbaijan’s only goal. It is pursuing several goals: for Armenia to recognize Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity, sign a peace treaty, and carry out demarcation and delimitation, which will mean that Armenia is officially rejecting Artsakh. This is Azerbaijan’s intention. It will continue to exert pressure on Armenia in the coming months.” In response to a question of whether he considers the pressure on Azerbaijan sufficient, as after the events of July 28, the situation became a subject of discussion in the Russian Security Council, the UN, the US House of Representatives adopted a plan to suspend military assistance to Azerbaijan, and the State Department issued a statement calling on the parties to return to the Minsk Group negotiations, Armen Vardanyan said, “Not yet. Of course, the resolution adopted by the US House of Representatives was very important. If a few more steps are taken in this direction, maybe Azerbaijan will change its military policy, and maybe it will be more restrained. In any case, the bill passed by the US House of Representatives was very important.”
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When asked how he would assess the reactions from Russia, and upon the observation that there is an impression that the interests of Russia and Azerbaijan coincide more in this region than those of Armenia and Russia, Armen Vardanyan answered, “Of course, the Russian side is also putting pressure on Armenia. It is enough to remember how Vladimir Putin recently received Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in the Kremlin.”
When asked if it is possible that the counterattack of the Armenian army will change the situation, the political scientist answered. “Not yet, because it is not such a crushing counterattack that Azerbaijan will be afraid to take steps for a long time. This was just a border incident, which I think will continue in the future. Unless we strike a very painful, crushing blow to the Azerbaijani side, their provocations will continue.”
Armen Vardanyan considers that the only way to solve the current situation is to develop and become stronger quickly. “As long as we are weak, Azerbaijan is trying to extort as much as possible. It is completely understandable and expected. In the current situation, the Armenian authorities must rearm, restore the Armenian army, upgrade the lost military equipment, and restrain Azerbaijan, forcing it not to take such provocative steps. So, I think the possibility of a large-scale war is small, but I think there will be constant border incidents.”
Tatev Harutyunyan
