The concept of “hybrid war” appeared in Russian discourse in the 2010s. According to some experts, the corresponding concept was developed by Russian General Valery Gerasimov, the same Gerasimov who is now leading his country’s military operation against Ukraine. Of course, Gerasimov did not think of combining military operations with political, diplomatic, and propaganda measures. It is a practice of millennia. Perhaps the new tone is that the places of military and “non-military” components are changing, and the importance of “non-military” measures is increasing.
By the way, Gerasimov was appointed just when it finally became clear to Russia that the “blitzkrieg” plan had failed, and the “victory parade” in Kyiv is at least postponed indefinitely (in my opinion, it will not happen at all). And when the war acquires a severe and long-term nature, there is little planning for purely combat operations.
Armenia and Azerbaijan have also been in a long-term war since 1991. The cease-fires of 1994 and 2020 and the “peace treaty” (if signed) did not stop the war and will not stop it. Therefore, the time has come to do “homework” by summarizing the experience of the enemy from 1994-2020, naturally, without copying it. Of course, determining the steps of “hybrid warfare” is a matter for experts. But first, the government, the political elite, and the society must accept that the war continues and a new battle is inevitable. It is not my wish; it is an objective reality. Acknowledging that reality, the same “actors” must decide our desired outcome of the war. And build the concept on that output. Azerbaijan formulated the desired outcome for itself: it can be called “Western Azerbaijan” in two words. I don’t think I need to explain what that means.
I heard about the “hybrid war” in Armenia as well. Years ago, Prime Minister Pashinyan, after dismissing the director of the National Security Service appointed by him, announced after a few weeks that Artur Vanetsyan was waging a “hybrid war” against him. He probably didn’t understand what it means.
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Aram ABRAHAMYAN
