“The escalations that we see at the border are all part of the chain,” said Olesya Vardanyan, the Senior Researcher of the International Crisis Group on South Caucasus issues, during a discussion on “Armenia-Azerbaijan, how to manage security challenges” organized at the “Article 3” club the other day. According to her, the fact that active actions are taking place by the West and Russia is positive.
According to her conviction, these negotiations more or less keep the parties at the same table and prevent a severe escalation.
According to Olesya Vardanyan, there are several key questions. “The first is to what extent Armenia and Azerbaijan will be ready to move step by step. There are many key questions along the way. They are trying to negotiate the fate of Karabakh, recording it in some way, with a document or an agreement, but steps are needed, which should, first of all, be from Baku’s side.
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We see pressure from the West, but Russia joined it, saying that contacts between Baku and Stepanakert are necessary. The second issue is the situation at the border. I would not consider it only demarcation and delimitation because there are issues related to security, Armenia’s demand for the withdrawal of Azerbaijani armed forces, etc. These are challenging questions in themselves. The third question concerns transport communications. We see progress in this direction.”
Speaking about Russia’s guarantee and role in the settlement of the Karabakh conflict, she said: “Russia has no attempt to mediate actively, but only to ensure its participation in the process.”
The Senior Researcher of the South Caucasus issues of the International Crisis Group noticed that the methods of force pressure are also used along with the negotiations. Referring to the escalation in Sotk, she said: “What is happening in the direction of Sotk proves that a certain pressure is being exerted on the Armenian side.
At least, this is how the Armenian side perceives it. What is happening in Sotk is problematic for residents, who are mostly Armenian refugees from Azerbaijan. The battles of Sotk signal the sentiments in Baku, which they want to convey to Yerevan, that there may be such developments that can bring fundamental changes in land and the negotiation process.
Unfortunately, on the Armenian side, such a situation has arisen that there is no way out except to go to negotiations. Official Yerevan has no choice but to go to any negotiation, on any platform, and with any agenda.”
According to Olesya Vardanyan, the Armenian authorities do not discuss negotiations with the public. “When the government of Armenia takes concrete steps, for example, it is about the border when they go to negotiations in other capitals regarding the Karabakh issue, and there is no discussion with the Armenian society on that topic. Many people have a contemptuous attitude and are suspicious of the negotiation process. It is a serious problem for the Armenian authorities, who, at some point, must understand that they should talk to the public, not make a statement in the parliament.
We see a logical question among the public: if the government of Armenia continues to talk about peace, why do they continue to kill people at the border? It wouldn’t have happened if the authorities of Armenia were more motivated to talk to the public instead of offering their version, which is not understandable for the public.”
According to Olesya Vardanyan, Western countries have an open window for Russia to cooperate in the Karabakh conflict negotiations, so there is no doubt that Russia can destabilize the situation.
Tatev HARUTYUNYAN
