According to the latest Gallup poll, in addition to Civil Contract, four opposition forces are expected to enter parliament, and together they would significantly outperform the ruling party. As I have written many times before, even if those polls contain a 4–5 percent margin of error, Pashinyan has no chance of securing either a constitutional or even a simple majority through fair elections.
That does not mean, however, that he will not attempt to prolong his rule. On the contrary, I am almost certain that at the June 8 rally he will congratulate the people on his “victory” and announce some figures. I practically rule out the possibility that a figure like Pashinyan would acknowledge electoral defeat. That would require a certain degree of statesmanship, something the current prime minister completely lacks.
What tools does Pashinyan still have at his disposal? Essentially two: propaganda and the repressive apparatus. Both, it seems, have almost entirely exhausted their potential. The “insider revelations,” in my view, failed to produce any lasting impact, despite the efforts of Civil Contract, its satellite parties, and propagandists to inflate them. Incidentally, I do not believe those producing such materials are some kind of “disinformation gurus.” The work is rather crude — at the level of a “fake news state agency.” As for the jabs by Pashinyan and members of Civil Contract in the style of a rap battle, admittedly they can sometimes be witty, but such remarks only survive for a day or two.
The effect of repression is also limited. Over the past eight years, both political figures and the opposition-minded part of society have become accustomed to Pashinyan’s methods and are prepared for them. If, ten years ago, 10–20 people had been arrested every day and one or two “spies” exposed, especially ahead of elections, it would have caused shock throughout society. (Not to mention what NGO activists would have done.) Now, however, the reaction is fairly calm.
Let us assume that Narek Karapetyan, Robert Kocharyan, and Gagik Tsarukyan are arrested, and that Macron and Ursula declare that to be acceptable. I do not think that would significantly affect the election results. On the contrary, it might further consolidate the opposition electorate. For example, I am by no means a supporter of Andranik Tevanyan, but I consider the attempt to fabricate some sort of “espionage” charge against him to be simply disgraceful.
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Aram ABRAHAMYAN
