The political analyst about Armenia’s and European Union’s possible partnership
Head of the Armenian Center for National and International Studies, political analyst Manvel Sargsyan does not think that it is accidental that right now the EU wants to start negotiations on a new agreement with Armenia. The geopolitical events are full of new developments and new events. Note that recently, EU foreign ministers have given the European Commission a mandate of talks about the new comprehensive agreement with Armenia. It is expected that negotiations will officially launch until the year-end.
Our interlocutor recalls that prior to creating such a situation in the region, there already were talks on signing an agreement between Armenia and the European Union, but, nevertheless, given the created situation, everything should be looked in the context of ongoing geopolitical developments. Mr. Sargsyan considers it noteworthy that in the meantime, when Russia itself is also involved in the fight against the “Islamic state”, the relations between Russia and the West have changed, notes, “Now, it seems everything is calmed down in Ukraine, it seems that all the sides reach an agreement on one day,” says Mr. Sargsyan and notes that Russia is trying with such policy to shake off the “burden” caused by the crisis in Ukraine. “Changes occurred between Europe and Russia. Now, maybe even Europeans have taken into account that they can offer some kind of an agreement to Armenia because this tough confrontation between Russia and the West does not exist.”
The political analyst notes that it is already obvious that the superpowers are working in agreement, and this changes the situation. According to our interlocutor, in the meantime, the political process of any country in the region should be viewed in the light of preliminary agreements of the superpowers. He believes that Russia has changed its policy adopted years ago, depending on the occurrence at this moment. “If once Russia was treating some problems differently does not mean that now it should look at the problem, in the same way,” he says.
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Regarding Armenia’s posture in this situation, the analyst says, “When new processes start, each country should clearly understand what its position is and what role it takes in these processes. No one wants to be isolated and cannot. For example, during the border escalations, statements were voiced, but they were just statements, decisions were to be made that we could already say that some political line is shaped. I think that someone should make our political direction clear. If the relations between Russia and Turkey become tense, certainly, it would affect us. If Armenia is within Russia’s political formats, it means what implies to Russia implies to Armenia as well.
Now, this gesture by the CSTO saying that you can answer the opponent yourself opens some way, let’s see what will be decided by us. Are we dependent on any organization, or make some steps to strengthen our security system? Again, no steps, just statements.” The ongoing processes in our region make us face a difficult choice and not only us. The political analyst brings the example of Iran, which cannot orient to go to the West or Russia. “Now everyone is stunned by this situation,” he says. Mr. Sargsyan notes that now it is difficult to understand who cooperates with whom and acts against whom. The best option, according to Manvel Sargsyan, is to follow the events and analyze and make appropriate conclusions. “The European Union has made an offer to Armenia to sign an agreement, now, the Minsk Group will come with an offer of the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia to meet, we need to express a stance again, it is also news that the CSTO representatives met with the OSCE related to the issue of Karabakh. All of this must be constantly analyzed to understand what to expect,” he says.
HRIPSIME HOVHANNISYAN
“Aravot” daily
