Political preconditions are needed for starting a war. Neither a small or a big leader, be it Napoleon, Hitler, Erdogan or Aliyev, starts a war not having fundamental political calculations. The presumption of madness does not work here: the leader starting a war can have an unbalanced character in person, but s/he cannot give an order of starting a war without having political grounds at least out of the self-preservation instinct.
Of course, the calculations might appear wrong as in the case of Aliyev’s unrestrained “4-day” war. But even Aliyev, who is not a manifestation of highly intellectual abilities, was conscious that if any of the OSCE Minsk Group state was critically against the war in Artsakh, it would have left the most serious political consequences on Azerbaijan. And he did not achieve his goals inasmuch as neither he, nor the elite of the mentioned states know Armenia and the Armenians well. Let me not go into details about our strong and weak sides.
Now Erdogan has started a war against Syrian Kurds and I do not think if Turkish army occupies Afrin, where a huge Armenian peaceful population is in place, Turkey will behave itself the way it usually behaves.
Nevertheless, however “macho’s” Erdogan seems, he would not go for that step if he was not sure that at least 3 sides – Russia, Iran and to some extent Assad’s regime would not counteract against that step. Of course, they make “ceremonial” announcements, but oppressing the sovereignty of Kurds is also favorable to them. And Erdogan, with a cynicism particular to him, announced about it in an open text.
Assuredly, Americans are against. But they are against with some reservations, forasmuch as because of Trump’s “wise” foreign policy they have appeared in isolation regarding some issues. Erdogan’s step, besides direct objectives, also has the pretext of a political bargaining with Americans. It is not a coincidence that he, again by an open text, addresses to Kurds: “You should know – only by making noise and roaring as if the United States supports you, you cannot stand against Turkey and Turkish people.”
It is possible that the United States swallows that “demarche” and tries to settle the relations with its NATO ally anyway. It is not excluded as well that the US undertakes further steps to protect Kurdish troops. It is a big question which plot is better.
Aram ABRAHAMYAN
