What Putin Said on May 9
Imagine that one day Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Let us hope that such a meeting eventually takes place, especially since both men speak about it from time to time. Do you think Putin would refuse to smile, decline to shake Zelenskyy’s hand, or utter rude remarks? No. The institution that shaped the Russian president — particularly the “specialization” he received in intelligence — does not encourage such behavior. The rhetoric he uses, especially when discussing foreign policy, is usually fairly restrained. That does not mean Russia’s actions toward Ukraine are restrained; on the contrary, they have been openly aggressive.
These “stylistic nuances” in the Russian president’s rhetoric should be taken into account when analyzing what he said on May 9. In my view, this discussion should be free of emotional propaganda: “Bravo, Putin put Pashinyan in his place!” Or, conversely: “Damn Putin — we need nothing from Russia, Macron will give us everything.” Understandably, in the logic of an election campaign, reactions tend to fall into one of those two categories. Surely elections are not the only thing that matters in our lives.
First of all, one should remember that Russia is a rigidly authoritarian state, and if the top leader does not want to speak about something, no journalist can force him to do so. Therefore, Putin wanted to address relations with Armenia — and he wanted to do so specifically on May 9.
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What exactly did he say, if we set aside the obligatory traditional preamble about Armenian-Russian friendship? Trade turnover between the two countries amounted to $7 billion last year, while Armenia’s GDP stood at $29 billion. In other words, trade with Russia accounts for nearly a quarter of Armenia’s economy — a significant figure.
Putin then noted that membership in the EAEU provides Armenia with numerous advantages in agriculture, manufacturing, customs policy and — importantly — migration policy. “And so on,” Putin added. Does raising the issue of migration contain a subtly veiled threat, particularly toward Armenian labor migrants working in Russia? And that “and so on” phrase could imply any number of things — for example, gas prices or the Armenian nuclear power plant, which operates on Russian fuel.
Of course, supporters of the current Armenian government believe that tomorrow Macron or Trump will wave a magic wand and gift Armenia a new nuclear power plant, and their conviction is unshakable —rational arguments rarely work on people who prefer comforting fantasies.
The Russian president then expressed the view that if it turns out Armenian citizens genuinely wish to join the European Union, Russia would begin a calm, mutually beneficial and civilized separation.. Finally, he recalled that the deterioration of relations with Ukraine began after Ukrainians declared their European aspirations in 2014. The very mention of Ukraine suggests that the prospect of such a divorce is, at the very least, questionable.
The metaphor of a “civilized divorce,” borrowed from the legal practice of marital separation, is a well-established term in politics. For example, on January 1, 1993, the former Czechoslovakia split into the Czech Republic and Slovakia — without a referendum (as Putin proposes in Armenia’s case), but also without violence. In 2016, the United Kingdom and the European Union also “separated” – this time through a referendum, in a process marked by numerous difficulties that persist to this day, yet still carried out without open confrontation.
The Belovezh Accords of December 1991, which marked the end of the Soviet Union, were likewise theoretically aimed at such a process. But afterward, we all saw what happened.
“At the moment, we have no plans to leave the EAEU,” Armenia’s current authorities declare. That may perhaps reassure Armenian citizens concerned about such a prospect. But can it reassure Putin?
Aram ABRAHAMYAN
