Putin called Pashinyan to him, and he gave a piece of paper against him: “Union Agreement.” Our prime minister got upset, tore up the paper, threw it in Putin’s face, slammed the door, and left. Putin shouted from behind: “Ah, you like that? Well, now you will see.
And closed the road.” That fairy tale of official propaganda sounds quite credible. It is digestible for those with the level of intellect and literacy of Pashinyan’s electorate. It takes about the same level of judgment to see three Russian military trucks on the road and say, “see who’s blocking the corridor?”
But suppose the official propaganda aims to “whitewash” Pashinyan by blaming everything on the Russians. In that case, the opposite action is also wrong. Suppose our job is not to create mythology but to analyze it. In that case, we need to understand the logic of the actions of the various parties. I have already mentioned that the tactic of official Yerevan was to say “yes” to both Russian and Western proposals, trying to delay time through that primitive game. Again, it was an unsuccessful tactic that speaks of insufficient knowledge and intelligence. As is the political power, so is the electorate.
The result of the same miscalculation is the belief of the Armenian authorities that after the depopulation of Artsakh, Turkey and Azerbaijan will allow the Republic of Armenia to live a peaceful and happy life. Here is the logic of the Armenian side, which is wrong and destructive. The betrayal hypothesis is from conspiracy, alien to serious analysis. It is undoubtedly in Russia’s interest to maintain its presence in Artsakh. Suppose Azerbaijan achieves its goal, and no Armenians are left in Artsakh. In that case, there will be no need for Russian troops, and Russia will lose that leverage.
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And on the other hand, Azerbaijan will reach its goal sooner if there are no peacekeepers in Artsakh. That, too, is simple logic; the rest are conspiracy theories constructed in different ways depending on the political taste of the consumer. Azerbaijan’s action in Berdzor is primarily against peacekeepers; it is no coincidence that “activists” humiliate Russian soldiers in front of cameras, inspecting that country for lice. Russia is understood to be weakened by Putin’s suicidal war in Ukraine. Under these circumstances, are the Russians ready to resort to harsh measures that could turn into a conflict? I am not sure:
Naturally, Russia is also interested in opening the so-called “Zangezur Corridor,” of course, on the condition that it controls that road because it can also be a severe lever. But that “bazaar” is with the authorities of Armenia, which, as in other issues, are in the middle of negotiations. And the ultimatum related to the Berdzor Corridor is presented, in fact, to the people of Artsakh. That injunction, it is clear now, is not “environmental” at all. The Azerbaijanis needed to understand whom they were dealing with.
Aram ABRAHAMYAN
